World oil trade flows
Also, Gulf coast refineries are seeing very strong refining margins at the moment and these are expected to stay, at least for a while. Russia, has always been a traditional exporter of fuel oil. However, it is thought that fuel oil export levels are going to decrease as a result of the changes in the export duties and large scale refinery upgrade projects. For the Middle East, significant refining investment is on the cards according to Wood Mackenzie.
Jubail is to come online this year, Yanbu in and Jizan in The presentation of course, due to the nature of the conference, focussed heavily on Asia. One of the trends that will be seen across Asia, according to Capan, is that gasoline will move from being in surplus world oil trade flows deficit.
Looking at specific regions, and starting with India, it was said that the country is going to become a big exporter of all major oil product groups and supply a large world oil trade flows to Africa with some going to Europe. New Zealand and Australia are expected to see further deficits of refined product as more refineries close in the region. India and North Asia are anticipated to absorb to a certain extent these deficits with the surplus of refined products that will be produced in the regions.
In North Asia overall, Wood Mackenzie believes that Japan is going to see more refinery closures but on the whole, there will be high levels of refined product in surplus, which will be utilised to a large extent, as mentioned above. In China things are expected to stay pretty balanced tobut it is likely going to become a net importer of fuel oil. For South East Asia, Capan said that seven projects world oil trade flows been announced and are expected to come into fruition bybut the others are considered unlikely to materialise.
Overall however, Wood Mackenzie does not expect much to change in Asia. Additional gross trade will see another 5 million tpy passing through Singapore, further cementing its position as world oil trade flows Asian trading hub. The drop in fuel oil production will reduce trade growth slightly between Asian countries, but North America is expected to cover this incremental drop.
ARA is the biggest trading hub in Europe and indeed competes with World oil trade flows. Between andsome 7 million m3 has been built or are currently under construction. Written by Claira Lloyd. Read the article online at: At World oil trade flows Storage Asia a presentation was given that looked at the storage market to with a particular focus on the Asia storage market. This content is available to members only. Please sign in or become a member for free.
Home Downstream Gas processing 10 October Global oil trade flows. Written by Claira Lloyd Read the article online at: A look at Myanmar as a country, its fuels market and ports.
A look at efficiency measures for the terminals sector. UK ministers have decided against subsidies for gas storage.
The Oil Trade Flow Portal provides detailed, interactive balances and trade flows for crude oil and major refined products, allowing clients to gain a better understanding of ever-changing trade patterns, and to anticipate future changes. Oil markets face significant tightness ahead. Despite recent volatility in risk assets, the global macroeconomic backdrop remains solid. In this environment of very little stock cushion, global refining runs are forecast to rise by 2.
And we see huge crude stock draws ahead, though there is some short-term indigestion absorbing prompt crude oversupply, particularly WAF. Geopolitical risks to supply are formidable Iran, Venezuela, Yemen, Libya and something is likely world oil trade flows go wrong over the next few months.
We believe OPEC cuts will persist beyondas Saudi Arabia takes the lead in assuring market management will continue into the future. Forglobal supply outpaces demand by 1. But stocks will remain at relatively low levels.
Refining margins are strong in Bunker spec changes in will be very disruptive. Changes in operations and prices will accelerate in 2H19 with much wider clean-dirty product spreads and crude quality differentials. To the dismay of the U. Higher mandates in some EU countries contributed to an increase in biofuel imports and a decline in exports.
Winter has not moved gently into April, and European gas markets will be feeling its impact via bone dry storage facilities for many months to come.
Refilling world oil trade flows deficits is quite a task, with failure meaning that prices next winter could look very similar to those seen world oil trade flows recent weeks. However, our fundamentally-derived prices maintain a fairly large premium over the market quotes, as we factor in risks of delayed nuclear restarts. German forward prices have found support in surging EUA prices, with the recent rise in price anticipating the trend we expected from onwards as world oil trade flows result of the Market Stability Reserve.
Short-term coal-gas fuel switching economics have been acting as the price-setting mechanism in the EU ETS market, more than what we have seen in the last few years. With gas prices buoyant due to extremely low stocks and with lower coal prices, coal-to-gas switching economics have been underpinning EUA prices and a potential continuation towards higher carbon prices is possible, world oil trade flows on fuel-switching economics.
Falling gas prices led to month-over-month power price declines at most Western hubs in March, overcoming the bullish impact of colder than normal weather and lower hydro output.
Rising Permian basin supply weighed on Western gas markets with most hubs recording price declines even though Henry Hub was nearly unchanged. While California hydro output will remain down world oil trade flows going forward, upward revisions to Columbia basin hydro generation will lead to weaker prices and heat rates this summer. Water releases in April will also be inflated by the need to reach falling flood control elevations at storage reservoirs. In world oil trade flows Southwest, in addition to lower hydro, retirement of Etiwanda 3 and 4 along with the previous shutdowns at Mandalay and San Juan imply the region will head into summer with 1.
Coal prices shifted considerably lower of March as coal demand world oil trade flows in China faded, and seasonal demand eased. Chinese import world oil trade flows over the balance of is expected to shift considerably lower due to rising renewable generation and weaker load growth compared to last year. Despite the downward correction in prices, prices remain exposed to further weakness in and Overall commercial inventories declined 1.
Four-week adjusted total U. Cushing crude stocks built 1. Overall crude stocks world oil trade flows forecast to decline 3. Continued inventory declines are forecast for the two major light products next week with gasoline down 1. Data on vehicle sales are a timely and useful indicator of economic activity. Given that the world economy improved markedly duringvehicle data should have shown corresponding strength.
The actual picture, however, was mixed. Vehicle sales are also a driver of gasoline demand, and a gasoline demand regression model using vehicle sales yields a high R-square.
Propane prices fell 1. Ethane prices increased 3. Propane inventories continue to decline with a draw of 1. Implied propane demand remains strong at 1. Steam cracker feedstock margins rebounded last week for all NGL feedstocks with ethane remaining the most economic feedstock.
Those same farmers that were surveyed by ag-centric brokerage houses and large Commercial entities in early March presumably gave the government very different numbers than the privates as combined corn and soybean acreage came in at million acres, down 3. The only estimate that was even remotely correct was that soybean acreage would be 1 million acres higher than corn, a small consolation. The final hold out from high winter import levels is still showing no signs of breaking.
Korea has been an odd player in the LNG market, with several distortions in the last year that have perhaps made LNG imports more robust than underlying demand fundamentals would suggest.
Until recently, heating degree days have been a good indicator for Northeast Asian LNG demand, however Korea has recently deviated from this blueprint — a theme that has made forecasting Korea both short- and long-term tricky in terms of storage management, nuclear production, weather, and coal developments.
That was more than double the 6. World oil trade flows stocks were fractionally lower, with gasoline and naphtha posting strong draws. Gasoline balances have tightened, with demand particularly strong last week. Other product balances are performing world oil trade flows expectations. The implied world oil trade flows margin continues to be acceptable, along with above average implied marketing margins.
VIX volatility fell back from about 25 to under Oil volatility also eased. Commodities were largely neutral, but world oil trade flows gained 0.
The metals index remains right at its support with respect to its uptrend and remains a key indicator. Ethanol inventories continued to slide the week ending March 23 after reaching a record high two weeks earlier. Stocks fell by thousand barrels last week to world oil trade flows May ethanol futures were up 0.
Saudi Arabia just reported their end-February foreign exchange reserves. However, additional financial resources fx reserves were probably used to defend the dollar-riyal peg in a period of rising U.
So far, month forward dollar-riyal exchange rates have not shown any undue stress and debt insurance quotes reflected in the credit default swap market have been well contained. Domestic Saudi interest rates have recently been allowed to rise, which means financial resources necessary to defend the dollar peg will lessen in March.
This implies any reserve drawdown that might occur in March should not be as significant. Global equities recovered about 1. Emerging Asia was higher world oil trade flows 3. Texas and New Mexico pulled down production while Oklahoma continued to grow and some disrupted volumes in the Gulf of Mexico returned. Our Reference Case outlook forecasts U.
January demand came in at Final end-January total commercial stocks stood at 1, Compared to January PSM data, total commercial stocks are now lower than year-ago by PIRA hosts a variety of events world oil trade flows year, for clients and non-clients alike.
In addition to hearing our latest thinking, participants also get a hands-on tutorial on our approach and methodology behind our content creation, arming them with essential know-how to build their own models and forecasts.
Gives clients insights into the trade flows balancing regional supply and demand that are critical to regional crude and product prices Provides a comprehensive analytical tool to visualize the interplay of regional crude and product flows Offers clients an invaluable asset for developing trading and planning strategies.
FEATURES See short-term quarterly and long-term annual balances and trade flows for crude oil and major refined products Create user-defined data tables with 13 distinct regions on refinery product yields, crude production and runs, product demand, net inter-regional trade flows, and inventory changes Obtain forecast data based on extensive research by PIRA.
European Natural World oil trade flows Markets. Commercial Stocks Continue to Draw. Financial Stresses Lessen, but Still Elevated. World oil trade flows Decrease from Record High. Global Equity Markets Rebound.
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